An optimist’s view

Here’s an article by Tony, a new contributor to Joys and Sorrows.

There’s quite a debate going on between the optimists and the pessimists among the Birmingham supporters at the moment.

The optimists (of which I tend to be one), point out that:

1. We put together a record-equalling run of 18 home games without defeat, stretching over a year (when, in living memory, have we gone to watch our team play at St Andrews for over a year without seeing them lose?). The ending of this run might even be seen as a blessing in disguise, as the fear of losing seemed to inhibit the team in recent matches.

2. We have an excellent goalkeeper, and a great and maturing central defensive partnership (remember that at this stage last season, fans were calling for Joe Hart to be dropped after a series of uncertain performances).

3. We have the basis of a fine midfield partnership, with Ferguson outstanding, and Gardner fast improving, with decent back-up from Bowyer and the admittedly under-used Michel.

4. We have a future gem in Nathan Redmond, with others (England U19 goalkeeper Jack Butland springs to mind) in the pipeline.

5. Zigic is struggling at the moment, but Hleb looks as if he may have a big influence on our season as he gains fitness and match sharpness. Derbyshire, Jiranek and Beausejour (French for “have a nice stay!”) all look like decent signings. Like Hleb, they all need time to settle and gain full fitness.

The pessimists argue that:

1. We have only won two of our last 17 matches.

2. We haven’t scored a goal in 289 minutes.

3. We have paid large amounts of money for signings that have not yet delivered (Zigic), or have not so far been given much of a chance (Derbyshire, Beausejour, Jiranek, Valles). The perception is that this money has been wasted.

4. We lack a natural goal scorer (apart from 36 year old Kevin Phillips), and, with the exception of the suspended Gardner, it is difficult to see where a goal is coming from.

5. The manager resorts to unadventurous and unimaginative formations and tactics. Jerome is not suited to playing up front on his own.

I’m sure there will be other arguments on both sides, but I hope that’s a fair assessment of the main points.

Rather than argue the toss, I thought that I would conduct a statistical analysis of our first seven games of this season as compared to the first seven games of the 2009-2010 season.

Taking the barest statistics, the comparison is as follows:

2009-10

P7 W2 D1 L4 F4 A6 Pts 7

2010-11

P7 W1 D4 L1 F7 A10 Pts 7

Both sets of statistics are from four home games and three away. They show that the two seasons so far are broadly similar. We won more games in 2009-10, but lost more also (two at home, against Villa and Bolton). We have scored three more goals than at this stage last season, and conceded four more.

However, these statistics don’t tell the whole story. Two of the games in 2009-10 were against sides who finished in the top four (a creditable 1-0 defeat at Old Trafford on the opening day of the season, and a last minute defeat by Spurs at White Hart Lane). We have yet to play a top four side this season. Meanwhile, our two victories were against teams who were relegated at the end of the season (Portsmouth at home with a last gasp penalty, and Hull away). It is arguable, of course, but I doubt if any of the teams we have played so far this season will be relegated.

Next I took the results so far this season, and compared them with the corresponding results against the same teams last season. These are as follows [last season’s results in brackets – the West Brom result does not apply, as they were not in the Premier League last season]:

SUNDERLAND 2 (3) BIRMINGHAM 2 (1)

BIRMINGHAM 2 (2) BLACKBURN 1 (1)

BOLTON 2 (2) BIRMINGHAM 2 (1)

BIRMINGHAM 0 (1) LIVERPOOL 0 (1)

WEST BROM 3 BIRMINGHAM 1

BIRMINGHAM 0 (1) WIGAN 0 (0)

BIRMINGHAM 0 (2) EVERTON 2 (2)

This analysis shows that, of the six relevant games, we have bettered last season’s result in two of the fixtures (Sunderland and Bolton), and achieved worse results in two (Wigan and Everton). The result against Blackburn is identical, whilst the draw against Liverpool was 1-1 in 2009-2010, goalless this season. Overall, using this comparison, we are one point worse off than in the corresponding fixtures last season.

So what does this analysis achieve? Probably nothing! The natural optimists will still see the glass as half full, the natural pessimists as half empty. However, I hope that this perspective will persuade the boo boys that our season has not imploded (it could, if the negativity on the terraces transmits to the players on the pitch).

In 2009-2010 our next two games were against a newly promoted team (Burnley away, lost 2-1), and a top four team (Arsenal away, lost 3-1). Our next game this season is at the Emirates, followed by a home fixture against a newly promoted team (Blackpool). Can we improve on last season’s showing?

Here’s some info about myself.

 Tony is a season ticket holder in the Tilton. He grew up in Moseley, then moved to Hong Kong, where he worked as an Administrative Officer in the Hong Kong Government for 14 years. He co-founded a football team there (which is still going strong), playing and managing in the local leagues for many years. He served as Secretary and then Treasurer of the Yau Yee Football League in Hong Kong. Now based in London, Tony helps people resolve trauma in their lives (possibly inspired by a lifetime of supporting Blues!), and is currently setting up a company to help organisations put heart into their business.