Forest Match Preview

Here is Nat’s match preview for this weeks game against Forest.

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Recent Form

Forest come into this game on the back of a 2-2 draw at the City Ground against QPR last Saturday, which halted a slide of two successive defeats against high flyers Cardiff City and then against bitter rivals Derby County in the FA Cup fourth round replay.

Before those three games they had been unbeaten since a 4-2 reverse at home to Doncaster Rovers on Boxing Day which had put Colin Calderwood’s P45 in the post-box and had heralded the arrival of the outspoken Scot Billy Davies as Manager.

The season so far

After a long-winded battle to win promotion from the third tier of English football ended last May, Colin Calderwood’s men were looking forward to pitting their wits against the cream of the Football League. Ambitious Summer signings such as ex-England international Andrew Cole raised expectations that Forest could follow in the footsteps of Bristol City and make the step up with ease. The most controversial signing that summer however was unquestionably. Rob Earnshaw, the man who had so spectacularly failed at fierce rivals Derby in their solitary season in the top-flight. However at this level of football, his scoring record and aesthetic appearance seems to suggest he is Bugs Bunny’s answer to Kevin Phillips.

The season opener against the enigmatic Reading was shown live on Sky, and the encouraging performance in the 0-0 draw suggested that Forest could easily make their mark. A reverse followed by victory against Swansea and Watford respectively did little to dampen spirits but the Tricky Trees were to come crashing back down to earth with a 5-1 annihilation at Molinuex at the end of August.

From there, things went from bad to worse for Forest, as they picked up just one win (away at Palace) and eight points out of a possible forty-five meaning that by the end of November Forest were second-bottom of the Championship, four points of safety. Following more desperate form in December, the aforementioned 4-2 defeat against lowly Doncaster was the final straw for the Forest Board, who dismissed Calderwood. Caretaker Manager John Pemberton oversaw a win at Norwich and a battering of Manchester City at Eastlands in the third-round of the FA Cup before Billy Davies took the reins for the relegation six pointer at The Valley against Charlton, which Forest won 2-0.

Two wins from their next three saw morale rise before their recent slump, which means that at this stage, Forest sit in eighteenth place, just four points clear of the drop zone. They are well and truly embroiled in a relegation scrap.

The Manager

Billy Davies is probably one of the more outspoken figures in the British game, but in Management has always enjoyed relative success wherever he has trodden. His playing career was unspectacular after being Released by Manchester United as a schoolboy, Davies made a handful for Glasgow Rangers before a quirky move to Swedish outfit Elfsborgs, and then going on to St.Mirren, Leicester, Dunfermline and Motherwell, where he hung up his boots in 1998.

Soon after retiring he took the job at Fir Park vacated by Finnish Manager Harri Kampman and a few months before Blues Manager Alex McLeish. He started with a flourish and took Motherwell into European competition. However things declined after that and Davies left after seven games into the 2001-02 season, with the club having won just three points all season and in financial turmoil.

After his sacking, Davies became assistant to Preston Manager Craig Brown and took the number one job at Deepdale in 2004. In 2005 he came within a whisker of Premiership football, losing the Championship play-off final to West Ham United. The following season he was to suffer play-off heartbreak again with a semi-final defeat against Leeds. During the successive close season, he left Lancashire to join Derby County.

In his first season as Derby manager he astonished everyone by taking a relatively average side which had narrowly avoided relegation the previous season to promotion, defeating much fancied in the play-off final at the new Wembley Stadium. The following season, Derby’s quality-depleted squad were cruelly destroyed in the top-flight, and after an embarrassing start which included 6-0, 6-0 and 5-0 reverses against Liverpool, Arsenal and West Ham respectively, Davies was sacked in November 2007. He stayed out of football until taking the Forest job over a year later, and his abrasive nature should help keep the notion that a man who had managed Derby such a short time ago shouldn’t be managing Forest from disrupting his inner sanctum. His ability to inspire and motivate players should also help get Forest out of the mire.

His assembled teams are traditionally sides which are tough, determined and play more than a glimmer of good football. He has, in my opinion the determination and footballing knowledge to carve a niche for himself in the top-flight, and I believe that, given time, he will come to do this with Forest.

Team news

Forest will have Captain James Perch and one time Blues target Nathan Tyson back from injury in time to face us. However Earnshaw, Bennett, Anderson, Moussi and Davies are all unavailable.

Possible line-up

Smith, Perch, Wilson, Morgan, Chambers, Davies, McGugan Cohen, Thornhill, Tyson, Garner

Key man

Lewis McGugan is a young man with the potential to become a very, very good footballer in the middle of the park. His vision and flair make him hard for defences to read, and he has the ability to unlock previously watertight defences. He has also got the knack for scoring spectacular long-range goals, which often have come at vital times for Forest. Question marks have been raised against his temperament, however on his day he is as good as anybody in the Championship, and he must be watched.

Tactical strengths

Forest’s one main strength comes in the liveliness of their front line. The work rate of Joe Garner should create space for the pacy and powerful Nathan Tyson to run into and exploit, with balls being constantly threaded through from their neat midfield. In my opinion, Tiny should be stuck on Garner, as they both have similar levels of pace and Tiny will not be put off by working as hard as Garner. This leaves the relatively quick and aggressive Ridgewell to contain Tyson, who will knock anybody not up for a fight out of his way.

Tactical weaknesses

Forest have two flaws which I think Blues should look to exploit. One that shines at me is their lack of a true holding midfielder (maybe they might want to borrow one of ours-it’s not as if we are short of them). Whilst they play the ball neatly in my opinion they lack the defensive stability and solidity that a Lee Carsley or Karl Henry would bring to a Championship team. We should look to exploit this by giving Lee Bowyer plenty of the ball and creative license to go in behind their centre-midfielders and play almost in front of their back four, with Bouazza and Sinclair hugging the touchline to stretch Forest.

The second flaw is the cumbersome nature of Kelvin Wilson and Wes Morgan, their two centre-halves. In my opinion, this should be exploited by ending the game with Jerome and Kevin Phillips as our front men, as Jerome’s pace will drag the already rather slow pairing out into positions they may not want to go, giving Phillips the space to manoeuvre himself into goalscoring opportunities which he seems so adept at doing.

They played for both teams

Forest and Blues have had a few players go to and from the Trent having played or about to play for Blues. Here are three who made significant impacts.

Trevor Francis-as a Birmingham fan, nothing needs to be said about him; he is the Messiah. In his near decade spell at Blues he scored over one hundred goals in less than three-hundred appearances before leaving St.Andrews and an ailing Blues team in the Winter of 1979 to join Brian Clough’s all conquering Forest in what was the first £1,000,000 transfer. He scored the winning goal in Forest’s European Cup final win over Malmo that May, before switching to Manchester City in 1981. He came back to Blues as Manager in 1996 and transformed the club, taking it to the Worthington Cup final in 2001, the club’s first major final in thirty-eight years. He left in October 2001, demoralized by the three play-off semi-final defeats we had suffered during his tenure. At Blues however, he will always be revered as a God.

Kenny Burns-the fiery Scot joined Blues from Glasgow Rangers in 1971. A classy, if not hot-headed footballer, Burns could be utilized at centre-half/midfield/forward, and in his six years a Blues nabbed forty-five goals, including a hat-trick at Leicester in 1976, during a 6-2 win for Blues. He moved to Forest in ‘77, winning a League Championship winners medal and two European Cups in his time there before being sold to Leeds for £400,000 in 1981. He finished his career at Oakham United in 1993.

Stern John-the Trinidad & Tobago international joined Forest from MLS side Columbus Crew in 1999, and in his time in the East Midlands scored eighteen times in seventy appearances. A cut-price move to Blues followed in February 2002, and he scored priceless goals for us, including a last-minute winner at Millwall in the semi-final second leg and the first penalty in that shoot-out against Norwich at Cardiff. Once we obtained promotion, Stern struggled to hold down a place in the first-team with Steve Bruce preferring Horsfield, Morrison, Dugarry and Forssell to him. However he was to still write his name in Blues folklore when, in a game at Villa Park where Blues had been losing 2-0, he grabbed an equaliser thirty seconds from the final whistle after Forssell had brough it back to 2-1. In August 2004, Stern moved to local rivals Coventry City, and is still banging the goals in in the second tier at Bristol City.

Prediction

I think Forest, like many other teams this season, will come to St.Andrews with no fear and will stroke the ball around in a bid to destabilise us and to get the baying crowd on the players’ backs. I see Forest getting a goal, but I cannot see their defence holding out for ninety minutes, but I can see yet another frustrating performance and result in the pipeline for Blues.

Score: Blues 1-1 Forest