Team News
Blues will give a late test to Nikola Zigic who missed out on Saturday.
Portsmouth are without Aaron Mokoena, who has a hamstring injury and David Norris, who is suspended.
Last Meeting
The last meeting was in March 2010 at Fratton Park. Blues won 2-1 with Cameron Jerome scoring both goals.
The last match between the two at St Andrews ended 1-0 to Blues thanks to a James McFadden penalty.
Recent Form
Blues have won four and drawn two of their last six league games. They are still unbeaten at home having conceded only six goals in fourteen games.
Portsmouth have won only two of their last six games but did win their last away trip 3-0 at Peterborough.
Outlook
Tonight is our final game in hand; a chance to climb up to third place and be only two points off the automatic promotion places. I think that second should really be our target place as I expect West Ham to take top spot at a canter. We can’t expect to compete with a team that can bring in two of the Championship’s best strikers on deadline day while we are only able to sell. The other spot is up for grabs and I expect it to be between us, Southampton, Middlesbrough and Cardiff. Reading, Hull and Blackpool will be there to step up if those teams slip. If we are to challenge then home games will be vital; especially against a struggling side like Portsmouth.
While Pompey are well clear of the relegation places they have financial problems that make ours look small. Not that I’m entirely sure of what our financial state truly is, whilst I know we don’t have a lot in the bank. At least our players are getting paid and as far as I know we don’t owe the taxman anything. They did seem to get away without selling too many players in January though, so should be able to put out a strong side this evening. They do still have players with Premiership experience although their top scorer is Erik Huseklepp with only five. They also had a rest on Saturday which will help them.
With the snow putting in an excellent defensive performance on Saturday (Three excellent tackles on Chris Burke) our chances of a fifth straight league win were ruined. The players would have found it heavy going in the conditions so some changes for this one could be expected. Adam Rooney will probably make way for Zigic and there may be another reshuffle in midfield with Gomis, Redmond or Elliot pushing for a start. Stephen Carr looks likely to miss out again so the defence will remain unchanged.
The weather looks like being better so there should be no excuses for not moving on to fifty points by the end of the night. I’m convinced that eighty points will be enough for second this season. That would leave us needing to win around half of our remaining games which is not that difficult to achieve. One game at a time though.
My Prediction Blues 2 Portsmouth 0
C’mon you blue boys.
@Aylesbury_Blue
Being a bit of stats buff this season in the Championship is proving interesting because of the low played/points ratio of the top teams. The key is in the return that previous seasons’ 3rd place teams have managed – as this has to be bettered….
2004/5 Ipswich 85pts (1.847)
2005/6 Watford 81pts (1.760)
2006/7 Derby 84pts (1.826)
2007/8 Hull 75pts (1.630)
2008/9 Sheff. Utd 80pts (1.739)
2009/10 Notts Forest 79pts (1.717)
2010/11 Swansea 80pts (1.739)
2010/11 Cardiff (current 3rd place) (1.724)
In other words a points return of 1.8 (83 pts) would usually be enough.
There is always a late surge in form for promoted teams which skews any predictions, and the current Blues return of 1.678 includes a poor start. In contrast the last 10 Blues games form show a return of 21pts = 2.1, which is automatic promotion form over any season. If they can keep a 2.0 ratio going over the remaining 18 games it would net a further 36 points, leaving Blues on the magic 83 points. Whether this will be enough for 2nd spot depends on the teams around them, and in particular Southampton, but I suspect it would. As you say WHU are nailed on Champions elect at present barring a serious slip.
Great preview, AB. Neat bit of research, too, Spotlight Kid. You’ve seemingly rubber stamped Aylesbury’s 80 point theory.
3-1 win for us tonight, I reckon.
Keep Right On!
I think Aylesbury’s 80 pt theory is terribly optimistic, Russ. Sticking my neck out, I’d say 85 or 86 pts to grab a definite second place, as Southampton are already heading for a return of 82 or 83 points based on their season’s form to date (1.793) even without any late form surges. Sure there’s a lot of games to come, and the Blues will have play out of their skins to make a return of 2.1 over those 17 games to hit that 85 pt target. It’s gonna be tight, that’s for sure – maybe even goal difference! I know CH never sets points targets, but he will know all too well what the team needs to do to avoid those dreaded play-offs. Pity the board doesn’t seem to….
I would rather finish 7th than lose in the Play Off Final, though I’d obviously win the Play Off Final than get automatic promotion. Horrible things, the Playoffs, too much of a lottery!!