After the last couple of results, I have finally changed my position. I do believe Karanka’s position is now untenable. However the issues run deeper than the manager, and I’d like to discuss the bigger picture in this blog.
Firstly I want to thank SouthernBlue on Small Heath Alliance. He posted some thoughts over the weekend which summed up a number of thoughts that I had. With his permission, I’m using the most of what he posted, slightly tweaked, with some expanded thoughts of my own.
The Manager.
I have done a couple of blogs recently so I’m not going to repeat most of what I have said, however just a few comments to make the point.
Karanka has had about 30 games as manager, and he’s only won 6 of them! SIX, and most of those have been away. That’s a return of 20% wins. Now I accept other managers had longer and were poor over a longer period, but bear in mind that Cotterill was sacked after 27 games and he had a win rate of 33%!
You have to go back to Garry Pendrey to find a 20% margin, other than Zola who truly was woeful and not including the deputy managers who held the fort between appointed managers. Garry was manager over 30 years ago. What’s more, I believe that these players are far superior to the players that Pendrey had. The club was absolute rock bottom then, and it’s understandable why we were so bad.
I can not understand why we are doing so badly now. Now the players do have to take some responsibility. It their mistakes that have cost us points. We have only converted 14 leads into 6 wins, that’s the worse in the league. However, the buck DOES stop with the manager. Two examples that sums up why Karanka is being given abuse from fans.
Midweek at Wycombe, we were 0-0 playing well, but not able to put the ball in the net. (That’s the pre-requisite for winning matches of course!) No substitution despite have a couple of forwards on the bench. It was said that he didn’t because the team were playing well and he didn’t want to disrupt things. I can accept that, however that has to be consistent.
So to Saturday. From what I understand, we played really well. Hogan looked really good. So when we went 3-2 down, what does he do – makes a substition. No problem with that, however you don’t take off the guy who looked like the only one who would score off – especially on a hatrick. So what happened to the not wanting to disrupt things there?
For me, that’s the problem in a nutshell. The inconsistency on the pitch is being demonstrated by the manager. We don’t seem to have a set shape, set team or a set manager! I VERY RARELY call for the head of a manager, however this simply isn’t working. We are in the bottom 3 not just with points, but also doing poorly in our stats too.
After 28 games only 2017/18 were we worse off (24 points), that was under Cotterill.
Scoring has been our issue of course, but conceding even more so.
Lead-defending ability
We have taken the lead 16 times and have conceded an equaliser on 10 occasions, corresponding to a lead-defending rate of 38% (for an opponents’ equalising rate of 62%).
Equalising ability
Of the 15 times that the opponents have taken the lead, we have only managed to score an equaliser 3 times – a rate of 20%.
Get this though, we have conceded at least 1 goal in 86% of our home matches and have failed to score in 43% of the home matches. 68% of our points have been earned away. 68% of conceded goals were conceded at home. We have also lost 64% of our home matches and failed to win in the last 10 home matches. We have conceded at least 1 goal in each of our last 7 home matches. 38% of conceded goals occurred after the 75th minute.
We are 4th from bottom in the form table (last 8), bottom in the home games table, 9th in the away table – so that’s good, 4th from bottom in the attacking table and 7th from bottom in the defensive table.
Those stats really indicate relegation form.
Stats from https://www.soccerstats.com/
However the manager and the players aren’t the only ones responsible. Those running the club need to take responsibility too.
Ren has appointed 5 first team managers now. None of them has had a successful reign – the one manager that looked like he may succeed (Monk) Ren fell out with and sacked. Now the narrative there has become that this was all Monk’s fault and we could have lost Bellingham for nothing. But surely a capable CEO would have dealt with that situation before it reached crisis point?
So despite what I have said earlier, here’s the thing. The constant turnover of managers means there is no consistency in the dressing room and a constant stream of payoffs – which must be approaching double digit millions. How anybody can have confidence that one more spin of the wheel is likely to be successful is beyond me.
Then there is the much published involvement in the football side of things by Ren, infamously demonstrated by his appearances in a track suit at the training ground. Although Ren has said that wouldn’t happen again, Karanaka regularly talks about his partnership with Ren. So I guess the question is, how involved is Ren or Karanka, in the transfer side of things? Has Karanka lost the dressing room and what is Ren doing to handle / mitigate this.
Then we have the administrative side of things. As well as the FFP shenanigans of a couple of years back the club continues to have a turnover of senior admin staff and, as Daniel Ivery has reported, at least one potential industrial tribunal plus various CCJs against the club. (See Daniel’s site for more details).
Is the admin side of the club a happy ship? And if not does this impact on the players? You get the feeling that things aren’t happy anywhere at the club at the moment.
Finally there is the club strategy which seems to change on a regular basis. Under Harry it was signing proven players, then it metamorphosed into signing younger players with a view to potentially developing and selling them on and blooding some of the youngsters. This season the transfer strategy seems much more random again and for the last couple of games we have it had one club developed player in the the match day squads of 20 – not one.
On the playing side the strategy has also metamorphosed from playing attractive open football at the start of last season to appointing one of the most defensive managers around in Karanaka. Now we have the confusion on the future of the Academy and the advent of the so called Strategic committee – although there appears to be no published findings from this august body. A decent CEO and Board would develop appropriate strategies and stick to them – not change them every 5 minutes. The confused and changing strategies and styles of play can’t do anything for the club.
It should also be said as well, that the ground sharing with Coventry is playing havoc with our pitch. I really hope this season is the last with the share.
I’m sure part of the issue is cultural. However the sensible thing is to get someone who does understand the culture to help. I see that Michael Wiseman has been called back in to form a new committee. Although it’s a bit confusing why, I actually thing it might help. I have met Michael several times and he is a good guy who has the club’s best interests at heart.
Finally, I don’t know if it’s good or bad that fans aren’t at games at the moment. I’m pretty sure that there would be a lot of derision, particularly at home.
So what’s the conclusion – well, as said, sacking the manager doesn’t necessarily fix things – so I guess we will just have to buckle up and see the ride out and hope that the club can get it’s act together both behind the scenes and on the pitch!
Stop putting square pegs in round holes..play players where they play,keep it simple and play like you want to win not like you don’t want to lose…Karanka poker faced and huddled up inside his coat collar is not the man to do this .
This is not the Birmingham City we as supporters recognise. This conclusion of mine has taken a fair bit of time for the penny to drop. After a few seasons of writing almost daily articles on Blues, I lost heart and enthusiasm to the extent of totally drying up. Under recent Managers and Head Coaches we have always had heart and desire despite the lack of quality. Even dear old Lee Clark showed the ‘Blues passion’. This time around there is a finality about us with no real belief that league One will be avoided come season end. Karanka is not right and sadly I believe he knows it. Harper,Cosgrove,Valery,Leko and Halilovic only add to the confusion with the obvious questions of why buy them. What we would give now for Davis and Keiftenbeld in our team to give us an outside chance of survival would be comforting. We have flirted with the drop for too many seasons and this pairing of Ren and Karanka looks like the death knell. As I said the only consolation is that this is not the Birmingham City I support and the saddest bit of all is the fact that I cannot face taking my young grandson to watch them. Why inflict joyless times for him.
I can’t argue with the stats. Like you, I rarely call for a manager’s head. I don’t see a “lost dressing room”. I do see strange substitution choices. But I can’t claim to be ITK about the reasoning. Surely he knows his job is on the line and would make changes if he felt it would improve us. Strange – not just poor – if he doesn’t realise that.
My honest opinion is our poor form is a bizarre link between Covid-19 (lack of family time/mental health issues/guilt over breach of conditions etc) and lack of fans. We thrive on our home support. We’re not alone. Our improved away performances point to other teams “suffering” at home.
Regardless, bottom three means siege mentality needed. Now.
Cheers for the great article Kev.
KRO.
PS. Sacking Karanka isn’t the answer IMO. We’ve proven time and again we’re ill-equipped to replace him. He’s a good manager proving it badly. We need stability not more sacking. It’s a gamble to stick OR twist but I’d go with sticking post transfer window
One thing I would say about the pitch is coventry and the away sides manage to play decent football on it (the fact we are on such a bad run at home shows the pitch must be ok for the other side so let’s not use that excuse).
Agree with the rest though. Rewatch the blues tv highlights after boro away and the old coach guy is virtually ignored by the players. For me the players don’t trust the coaching staff or the manager and don’t like this style of play either.
Fair point about the pitch Paul.
Still paying the price for the sacking of Rowett. At an all time low at the moment, in seasons pasts we always had an angle of complaint and could see a way out but it feels different this season, the problems are all the way though the club and I can’t see a way out at the moment, just hope I’m wrong
Stephen Gallagher is right of course.Problems throughout the club. Our owners who cling on to their beloved HKSE listing only do so whilst we remain in the Championship. Dropping to the wilderness of the league One is where imo they will jettison. Outcome may be favourable with Administration a real possibility but and it is a big but- we would be open to new owners-preferably local for a mere pittance. Wolves, Southampton, Sheffield United and Portsmouth have all been there.Best example of all is probably Brighton.
The main thing about all of this his the people in control i.e. owners, board and manager have no affinity what so ever for club.
far too many changes to the team, always plays defensive and shocking substitutions and as long as we have these DOG SHIT OWNERS then nothing will change.
The answer is pretty simple IMO. Get rid of Ren. I can’t think of a time we’ve had a more incompetent and delusional CEO. His transfer dealings are nonsensical, his business acumen is that of an ostrich with it’s head in the sand and quite frankly he’s a liability. Remember he got rid of a lot of long-standing employees who were Bluenoses. There’s no transparency, no communication and we are fast becoming a joke. The shower up the road are having the time of their lives watching everything happening at St’Ans at the moment. Dong Ren HAS to go if the club is to survive, and that unfortunately is the sad state we find ourselves in, he’s fast approaching Ken Wheldon infamy.
I am clearly in a minority here but I don’t subscribe to the point of view that all is lost and we’re doomed. I confess that I find it baffling that we just can’t seem to win at home but that has been the case for some time and pre-dates the coming of Aitor Karanka. Look, I’m as frustrated and despondent about where the club finds itself as the next bloke; a mediocre team in a mediocre league but I don’t see a team that is putting in performances for a manager who has ‘lost the dressing room.’ I feel we have played very well at times especially away from home and it is galling that we have left points out there; Cardiff, Stoke and Bournemouth to name but three (eight points right there) but much of this is down to individual errors that cannot be legislated for by any manager. Sacking him will only make matters worse in my view and if you want to guarantee relegation, then go ahead. I don’t know how many have read Scott Hogan’s interview in the Birmingham Mail https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/the-lads-starting-realise-scott-19797038 but it echoes the impression I get which is the players actually want to do well for the manager and he states that the players are better than we have had for some time which is my feeling. I believe the worm will turn and with a much needed win, things will start to turn as confidence grows. There are several teams worse than Blues in the Championship, believe me and over the games left that will eventually tell. It also has to be said we have had poor fortune in some of our games and as for refereeing decisions, start start me off! Remember some of the penalty decisions against us? I rest my case! Have faith mes braves, have faith! So there you have it lads, one man’s opinion. KRO.
He must go, No passion, no tactics, does not use subs properly,
gets players in and then says they are not ready?!!!!!.
Eddie Howe is available, but he would probably demand more say in
team matters.
Ren has too much input and this is a major factor in our decline
since he took over.
Has any one watched karanka on side lines.. hes like a mannequin he has no emotion. Only time he moves it to put something on paper.. we all know he needs to start playing two upfront. He doesn’t know hes best eleven. Yes we can moan at the board but they have backed us in transfers. Not a vast amount but still spent some. I definitely agree with the fact not having fans is having an impact. If only kranka made subs early ie 60-75 mins not 89th min. Plus play two up front please we can all see it why can he not? Kro sotv
First and foremost, an excellent article Kev – In fact, just last night I was also looking into statistics of previous managers against Karanka, (obviously, not including Zola) and came to pretty much the same conclusion, especially Lee Clark’s enthusiasm and commitment. There have been several good points made above by various other supporters. But personally having followed this club since 1969, through its many ups and downs, this season seems completely different – there does appear to be a sense of inevitability of relegation. The fact that just our next game against Luton, fellow supports are already dreading!, let alone Millwall and Norwich on the 23rd, Thank heavens we don’t have to play Brentford until Easter Monday. Personally I’m currently very, very torn – yes we can call for Karanka’s head, but let’s face it, which out-of-work manager would be interested in this job?. Ok, we still have 18 games in theory to scramble away or do we just persist and maybe Karanka will see his errors – I really don’t know to be honest.
Dongs master plan was to get rid of everyone at the club who knows more and is more competent than him … This means everyone had to be replaced or got rid of by…. Yep you guessed it Dong!!!
We have relatively easier games of Luton, Millwall and Sheff Wed coming up. The team needs to get good results from those games or he needs to be sacked. Simple.
Karanka out before it’s to late should of got nesbitt goal scorer fitness levels not good enough sold the wrong players
Since dropping down to second bottom tonight, I hear there are moves to get Paul Cook in fast. Might give us a chance.
I think I agree with Johnboy. I’m sure Rowett and Kieftenbeld will be well up for it, but if we don’t get anything from Luton and Sheff W, then Karanka must go. I doubt we’d be able to appoint Howe or he would want to come, but an actual possibility could be Paul Cook, just a thought?