Baz called me this weekend, to say he had been looking at the league and thinking about our play-off chances. He thinks we can’t make it this year and has put the following blog together explaining why he thinks that. The basis of it is on the graph he has created which shows where we should be to achieve the goal of promotion, or if things go REALLY wrong, relegation!
The targets are guess work to a certain extent, and we did agree that we thought this year 6th place could well be achieved on fewer points. Anyway, here is Baz’s thoughts, click on the thumbnail to see the image and I’ll add a few comments below.
Kev
Much of the talk on the forums and various blogs concerned with matters of the blue and white persuasion has been to do with the club’s owner and his travails in the Hong Kong courts of law. Others talk remorselessly about the merits or not of the manager laying blame in various measure at his door. When the little matter of football is discussed, our form so far this season is of concern and rightly so especially at St Andrews where the team has been found wanting on several occasions and against pretty ordinary opposition in truth.
Nevertheless, there appear to be fans who still believe that with a run of form that Blues are capable of climbing the table and heading towards the play-offs. We are now just over one third of the way through the season and whilst it is eminently possible to start making a move upwards, I have grave doubts that it is going to happen since the statistics do not appear to support such an occurrence. Now don’t get me wrong; I am not meaning to be overly pessimistic and I would add I don’t subscribe to the gloomy view that what few good players we have will all be sold and we will gurgle down the relegation plug hole in an ever decreasing spiral. Let’s just look at some facts for a moment.
I have drawn a graph with league points on the y axis and number of games played on the x axis. I have assumed that our total of 76 points last season will be enough to get a play off berth so the graph starts at 76 decreasing down to zero as the number of points required over time falls with the decreasing number of games to be played. The graph therefore appears as a worm line like SKY tend to do with limited overs cricket. The black line is a target hypothetical trace of 1.65 points per game which is what a team needs to average if it is to reach the target and is a straight line.
Any worm line below that line means the team concerned is ahead of schedule and anything above it is off the pace. I have prepared two other lines; a green one which denotes two points a game and assured automatic promotion and another showing one point a game, 46 points where generally relegation occurs. This is denoted as an aptly coloured brown line.
The blue worm is where Birmingham are at the present time and it is not hard to see that we are off the pace and this is reflected by our league position but if you extrapolate the trace to the vertical axis on the right we will miss the play off target by a significant margin but the brown line is not crossed so at present a lower half finish is predicted.
I don’t pretend that this is a hard and fast prediction as much can change over the next 29 games but we need 56 more points which is virtually automatic promotion form. I’m sorry fellow sufferers but it ain’t gonna happen in my view. I will update the graph every half a dozen games or so by way of interest as it will be fascinating to see what happens whatever fate has in store.
Bazza KRO SOTV
Many of you know, I normally stay pretty positive in regard to Blues and try and see the “plus” of any negative. However I do struggle to see us achieving a play-off place this season. Our form is poor. We have played better recently, and deserved something from the Derby game, but we have to start picking up points QUICKLY.
When you look at the table, it looks tight and only 9 points separate us from =6th place. The problem is, there are 12/13 teams above us and many of those are picking up around 9 points from 12. That means to overhaul 9 points on ONE of the teams with that form, will take at least 12 games, if we win all of ours and they maintain that form!
Now teams play each other all the time, so the picture isn’t as bad as that because points will be dropped etc – but it does give an idea of the increasing difficulty we face. Also remember the example was ONE team, there are 12 teams to overcome, all be it the 6 above us we could overtake within 3 or 4 games if they lose a few.
I think if we realise it is unlikely that we achieve a playoff place this year, that will take pressure off. When you take the pressure off, the team will play better, when we play better, we win more and when we win more…. well who knows!
Anyway what do you think?
We wont make the play offs because of our style of play. We seem to have developed a fusion between McLeish and Hughtons style of play, and its really not working. We seem to have adopted Hughtons team formations with McLeish’s style of play, and its a recepie for disaster.
It seems to be a deliberate tactic to give the ball away as quickly as possible when we are in posession. Every single time Butland got the ball on Saturday, he went long even when the full backs gave him options. Davis and Caldwell had numerous occasions when they had a simple 10 yard pass to somebody in space, and they also went long. This is a throw back to the McLeish days, but the fundermental difference is McLeish had a team set up to defend, and an energetic mobile striker (Cameron Jerome) who would chase everything and defend from the front. We have 5 defensive minded midfielders and a well protected back 4. Clark is playing the McLeish way, with a wide open side. Zigic is slow and imobile, this way of playing really will not work.
Hughton was a breath of fresh air, playing exciting wingers and two strikers. The difference was Hughton wanted us to keep the ball and dominate possesion. Lee Clarke cannot play this way with this team while we continue to give the ball away so easily. We are making very average teams like Derby and Barnsley look like Brazil.
It seems amazing the basics are going so wrong for us this season. Throw inns for example, we seem to be throwing the ball at peoples waists, it should goto peoples feet or heads, its basic under 10s stuff!!!
We wont get relegated, we have enough quality to win the odd game here and there, but we are a long long way away from the play offs!
Rick has hit the nail on the head, what is our style of play?? We are 12 games in and I still don’t know!! Are we a creative passing team who want to get the ball out wide and play an expansive game, or are we a long ball team? We seem to change multiple times in the middle of games.
We had no respect for the football in the first half. We continuously gave away possession and went for the long ball. There were hundreds of opportunities for short 10 or 15 yard passes but we went long to Zigic who can’t head a football. The full backs peeled wide on numerous occasions to be ignored in favour of the long ball.
Then in the second half, we turned back into a passing team, keeping possession better and allowing the whole team to move up the pitch as a unit, rather that hitting Zigic early and there being a 40 yard gap between him and the midfield.
Rick is right, we need to identify a style of play. If we are a long ball team to Zigic, you need to build the team around that. If we are a passing team, we need to start passing the ball for the whole game, not just periods of it. There are times we look good with the ball, I really hope we decide to be a passing team and start to treasure possession of the football.
Couldn’t agree more guys.
Although I don’t disagree with your comments, we didn’t ALWAYS play that way under Hughton. I remember people grumbling throughout the season that he was too safe in his formations and not attacking enough.
I think LC has been overly criticised. Recent games, despite the results, has seen us playing better and we look more balanced than before. On another day we would have at least got a point on Saturday and we should have beat Hull despite the 3 goal start.
We won’t get into the play off’s as we have a manager who has done nothing since coming to the club other than make us worse.
Caldwell – Worse
Burke – Worse
Davies – Worse
I could go on but while I accept the players are at fault, I also think playing a high back line with the slow defence is bad tactics.
You can’t blame the manager for players who don’t care and don’t even have pride in their own performances, it’s a though they have a hidden agenda.
How can a championship player not be able to make even simple passes, why are they so lazy, as they just punt long balls for zigic instead of working hard by passing and moving for the return or to drag defenders out of position.
Diop can aslo play defence but he persists with Caldwell, what has he to lose, also Butland could be rested and give Doyle a go, he may organise the defence in front of him, a goalie is not just about making saves, plus young kids do need to come in and out of the team at times.
Can’t agree Cliff I’m afraid. Merely blaming Lee Clarke is too simplistic. Some of the goals that we have conceded so far this season have been down to bad professionalism and failure to carry out basic functions. I don’t think you can blame Lee Clark if he lacks a squad with pace but he is given no funds to address it. My only criticism of LC is his continued perseverence with Mullins whom I do not rate one bit but that is just my view; others may feel differently. Blues can play when they put their minds to it; their second half performances on Saturday and also at Millwall when we were 0-3 down were good but we have to stop knocking it long to Zigic all the time and keep possession. Ravel Morrison thrives on the short passing game but Mullins is not good enough as an enforcer or in playing the Barry Ferguson role so we will continue to struggle with the personnel we have at the minute I’m afraid. I hope we get Caddis back soon so we can perhaps move Spector forward or preferably drop Mullins and bring Diop in. Basically, football managers especially those with the playing experience of LC know what they are trying to achieve and know a lot better than most of us what they are doing. We all have a view as to how they go about it and it may not be in keeping with what is actually happening but just calling for the manager to be changed will not solve the multi-faceted problems that Blues are enduring right now.
Bazza – OK he has the squad and cannot improve it, I agree. However knowing we have a slow back line why play so far up the pitch? That is a tactical decision based on players not capable of deploying it.
I did not call for Clark to go in my comment by the way. I do however think he is our worst manager for some time, he has limited options but does need to roll the dice to suit the players.
Surely the vectors on the graph should run from the root of the axes, upwards to the right; that is, from nil games played and nil points. You seem to be showing progress from the target rather than towards it. You don’t say, either, how the targets have been arrived at, how many season’s outturn statistics have been averaged, if any.
The fact is that almost 40% of the matches have been played and we have twenty points. Of course, automatic promotion is still possible. If we win all 28 games then we will reach 104 points, which is one or two short of the record. Is that likely? It’s probably greater than lottery winning odds.
Only four teams have scored fewer goals than Blues, only six teams have conceded more goals and only four teams have a worse goal difference. We have won five games from eighteen, less than 28%. If we were to double our win ratio for the remainder of the season, creating a record over that time better than this site told us that TF achieved, and maintain our draw ratio then we will have a record for the rest of the season which reads: W15 D7 L6, giving a further 52 points and a season’s total of 72.
This turnaround must start at Blackpool tomorrow so, easy peasy! In the last seven seasons only two teams have finished in sixth place with fewer points and in four of those seasons the tally has been 75points. If we achieve this then the win ratio for the season would be 45.6%, which only TF’s record of 48% betters. Even CH, who I think had a little more than a marginally better squad, achieved only 42%. So, whilst not impossible, in the realms of reality it is extremely unlikely that we will reach the play-offs. A couple of days ago I read one fan’s statement that Blues squad was “more than capable of holding its own” in the Premier League. I really do wonder what some of these guys are smoking. Do they make any objective assessment of each of the players at Blues and of the reality of the squad-average standard required for the Championship, let alone the top league? I don’t think so; it’s just wishful and lacking in any thought process lasting more than five seconds, just based on: “Duh, its Blues, innit”. One shouldn’t be unduly pessimistic and neither should one be overly optimistic.
The only position to take is one of reasoned consideration. In my view, promotion was not on the cards at the start of the season, given last year’s stronger squad, regardless of the manager this season. Thinking that it was is like buying an old Mini believing that it will do 150mph and, when it doesn’t, buying another one of like type, which is chucking out blue smoke, and believing that that one will achieve 150mph! Especially unlikely considering that the professional driver had been replaced by someone appearing to be more like Noddy! “What a lovely day, what a lovely day for the deep analysis of: ‘we’ve got to get more consistency’”! Which, by the way, we have got; it’s just of the wrong type.
As for the Derby game, we had an unfortunate decision against us and another not given but on the balance of play, and the difference in quality of play, we didn’t deserve anything. It’s been a long, long time since I’ve seen a side dispossessed so easily as Blues players were on Saturday, it was like taking candy from kids, embarrassing. Add the inability to make simple passes and the inclination to play passes which were highly optimistic as an easy opt out and you have a performance which matched the result and our position in the table. The winning goal was from a cross which two defenders, one of them the rated Davies, watched pass across them with no attempt at a lunge, like Johnson or Dann would have made, to try to cut it out. If you don’t try then you don’t give yourself a chance. Even our lauded good spell did not constitute coherent play; it was just individuals playing with a bit more spark and ball control but not much mutual understanding.
As for the Hull game, which somebody has raised, it wasn’t another day, it was played on the day that counted and we didn’t win and we didn’t deserve to. You might just as well say: “In another season we would have been promoted”! It was typical of the season, which hasn’t been unlucky but largely incompetent and, for the most part, lacking in skill, effort, desire and full-out commitment.
Baz is counting down in regard to points needed so therefore it’s fine. I would agree though, it probably ought to have been the other way round – but it does still work.
You’ve made some excellent other points Weary. I formatted some paragraphs to help readability because it is well worth reading and the one big paragraph may have put people off.
Wearynose mate, I accept your point about the vectors; yes they could have been placed as a rising rather than a falling target but it makes no difference to the analysis. The reason I decided to do a diminishing graph was because I had a fixed target of 76 points (this is in itself a big assumption – with teams beating each other this season and no one really running away with the league it is possible that the play off target will be much less) So at the start of the campaign if you say we need 76 points minimum then you start at that point; it’s a state of mind really whereas a rising graph is more open ended psychologically. I agree with you how deluded some people are about the merits of our present squad; they are certainly not good enough for the Premier League and they are clearly struggling at the level we now find ourselves. I chose a diminishing target format in order to graphically demonstrate this delusion. When you consider that we now need 56 points from 28 games to reach the hypothetical target it brings the task into much sharper focus than plotting the worm going the other way. If the line you are following crosses the y axis you are in business if it strikes the x2 axis (the vertical line on the right) before the 46th game you aren’t making the play offs. I am not trying to make this statistical exercise complex but I thought it might provoke some interest and a more realistic thought process in some of our following.
Thanks for your kindness, KevB8ll. You’re quite right about readability. I am too conscious about the length (yes, really) in this format and don’t format, paragraphs or sentence spacing (one extra space) as I do with emails and letters but, you’re right.
Thanks, Bazzathebluenose for your generosity and temperance. I did have a look again after posting and got my head round it; put it down to age! You did provoke me to look at recent history so you have promoted thought.
KRO, let’s hope for an early revival of the semi-comatose body which means so much to us.
Clarke has upset the balance of the squad that we had last season by bringing in more older players and using bad tactics. Even if he was given the full backing of a better board i doubt he would have success at blues. He hasn’t got the knowledge or experience to manage a side to promotion at this level of football. Blues need someone to steady the ship while the financial problems stop us from progressing in this league. I predict a mid table finish and if the club finds new owners Clarke will be sacked.
high line and slow defence is a big problem for us, that my personal view. But looking at the bigger picture i dont want us anywhere near getting promotion this year. As a club (as in the whole club) we are no where near like looking holding our own in the worlds best league. Also if and thats a big IF mr clarke got us promotion would we keep him or sack him? im guessing we would keep him and give him a crack until the christmas when it would probably too late for another manager to keep us up. The blues need shaking up turning upside down and starting again when we get new owners, then we should give it a promotion push.