A few weeks ago, Russ gave us some possible outcomes in regard to us qualifying for the knock out stages.
Well I thought I’d do an update, (actually I was prompted by @andy_tomlinson via twitter!)
The existing table looks like this:
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However it is important to understand the rules. The league is determined by the following method according to Wiki:
If two or more teams are equal on points on completion of the group matches, the following criteria are applied to determine the rankings (in descending order):
- higher number of points obtained in the group matches played among the teams in question;
- superior goal difference from the group matches played among the teams in question;
- higher number of goals scored in the group matches played among the teams in question;
- higher number of goals scored away from home in the group matches played among the teams in question;
- If, after applying criteria 1) to 4) to several teams, two teams still have an equal ranking, the criteria 1) to 4) will be reapplied to determine the ranking of these teams;
- superior goal difference from all group matches played;
- higher number of goals scored from all group matches played;
- higher number of coefficient points accumulated by the club in question, as well as its association, over the previous five seasons.
To my reading, that means the points gained head to head are considered before goal difference if the points are the same. IF I’M WRONG, please someone say!
If what I say IS correct then:
We will finish above Brugge if we match their results, regardless of goals.
We will finish 3rd if we fail to get anything from Braga and Brugge pick 4 points or more up.
Again assuming I’ve read it correctly and the head to head rule IS the 1st criteria applied – that works in our favour as our goal difference is the worse of the 3 sides.
If we beat Braga by 3 goals, we will be above them on the head to head because although the points head to head are the same we would have the better goal difference. That would almost confirm our progress because Braga and Brugge play each other last and of course they both can’t pick 3 points up.
Whatever happens though, we have done ourselves credit in this competition.
I think I agree with you. We are second in the group currently because we took 4 points from Brugge. IF we can avoid defeat tomorrow and beat Maribor we are definitely through to the knockout stage. I think!
The way I see it is that if Brugge and Braga win tomorrow, we are out. It is possible to still go through but it would mean Braga (who would have qualified already) would have to beat Brugge in the final game. They wont as they’ll play kids and give their main squad rest knowing they’re already safely through.
Maybe Maribor will do us a favour against Brugge…
ever hopeful – Matt
Seems simple to me. Lose and we’re most likely out, draw or win and we’re most likely through.
Treat the last two games as the effective start of the knock out stages and forget the maths. Blues can’t lose either or they are immediately out, and still need to win at least one of them to progress.
So no pressure…!
Win today and we’re through …. simples!
A win for us and Brugge puts us on 10 points and Braga on 7.
Even if we lose our last game we’ll still go through (AND TOP THE GROUP) because
A) A brugge win leaves Braga on 7 points with us and them on 10, we top Brugge on head to head results
B) A Braga win puts all of us on 10 points but using the head to head criteria We would have 7 points (4 off Brugge, 3 off Braga) Braga would have 6 points (3 off us, 3 off Brugge) and Brugge would only have 4 points (3 off Braga, 1 off us) Meaning we’d be top on Head to head record.
EDIT: A brugge win in both games means we’ll only top the group by winning both games too, but even so a win today puts us through regardless