Nat has put this blog together in response to our drop down a division. He makes some points already made on here, but from his own perspective and a different perspective on certain things.
As I said the other day, if you totally disagree and want to have a go at putting a blog together, let me know via the contact page.
I’m in shock. In the middle of April after beating Sunderland we seemed pretty much safe. Thirty-eight points with six games still to play. No problem. Pick up a draw here, a win there, and we’d be fine.
SO HOW THE BLOODY HELL HAVE WE GONE DOWN??? And what do we do now?
Well fact is fact. Next season we’ll be playing in Europe’s second tier competition and England’s second tier competition. The first English club in nearly three decades to win a major trophy and go down in the same season. As with any relegation, there will be change, massive change, so the only thing to decide is where and how that change is applied.
First though, we’ve kept a semblance of the old order, Alex McLeish is apparently definitely staying. A good move in my opinion. He is a class manager. He’s led us to a major trophy, our first really major trophy. He’s led us to ninth in the Premier League, our highest place finish since God was in nappies. But perhaps most importantly, he did lead us to promotion the last time we were in the second tier. He is a consummate, clever guy, and in the past we have done well sticking by managers (as well as McLeish, Steve Bruce, Barry Fry, Ron Saunders and Jim Smith have all took us to promotion immediately after they took us down), and I believe we could do so again.
The only thing that worries me is the Board’s motives for keeping McLeish. Do they really have faith in him? Or are they keeping him on because they don’t want to pay him off? Or because they can’t think of/convince someone who they think is a better candidate? Sullivan and Gold, for all their (many!) faults would be pretty blunt in backing the manager, Gold especially. It seems to me that this Board have, at best lukewarm faith in Big ‘Eck. Peter Pannu has in the past been critical of McLeish, and was it just me, or was Sunday’s statement of ‘support’ for him a thinly veiled swipe? It just seems that McLeish will be in dire straits unless we rip the Championship to bits next season. Maybe rightly so, but it just smacks to me that we might be looking for a new Manager before long.
According to reports, Paul Montgomery, McLeish’s chief scout is apparently being sacked by Yeung because of how crap some of our recent signings have been. There have been hints that Yeung might take a more ‘hands-on’ role from now on. In a way I don’t blame him; if I’d thrown money at the squad and seen a lot of the signings made since my arrival as chairman totally fail as we went down (Bentley, Hleb, Michel, Derbyshire etc.) then I’d be tempted to perhaps have more of a say. However, the Manager must be left to manage, it never ends well when the Chairman starts interfering too much. As well as this, if Yeung apparently sacking Montgomery is the start of the cull of the infrastructure McLeish has built generally, it strikes me that you could be handicapping ‘Eck himself; like saving a person’s torso but cutting off the arms and legs. If Yeung is going to back him, BACK HIM.
With any relegation, players clear off. According to the Birmingham Mail, the four loanees have gone back, and Parnaby, Super Kev, Larsson, Marcus Bent, Martin Jiranek and Lee Bowyer will probably follow them out the door. So there are ten players gone already. And then there are those who will just want to clear off. Ben Foster, Roger Johnson and Scotty Dann will definately have top clubs chasing them. Ridge and Fergie will in my opinion attract attention, and Cameron Jerome for some reason was wanted by Stoke in January. Will Nikola Zigic want to play Championship football? Will Jean Beausejour? We could be hurtling towards a situation where we won’t have enough players to field a side without reinforcements.
We won’t totally know what sort of players we need until we know who is definitely going and staying, though it is clear that we need at least three top strikers. I’d suggest, if we have the cash, to go after Danny Graham at Watford; strong as an ox with an eye for goal; a quicker, perhaps better version of Geoff Horsfield. When I saw him play for Watford at Forest in February, he was up top on his own yet still managed to cause problems; mindful of the 4-5-1 system Alex has been playing, this could be vital. Jay Bothroyd is going on a free; he’s lazy but he’s good. Billy Sharp, in my opinion, has the potential to be the fox in the box poacher that Kevin Phillips won’t be for us next season. Martin Jiranek’s gone, and I think AT LEAST one other defender will depart, so I’d go after Wes Morgan at Forest, because he’s strong in the air and good on the ball. We need a winger who can go past a man with pace and skill, so how about Elliot Bennett at Brighton? Darren Ambrose is a good creative midfielder, easily Palarse’s best player in the past few years. These signings aren’t A-List when compared to who we’ve been able to sign or gone after in the past couple of years, but their good, proven, upper-end Football League players, and all relatively young and hopefully hungry for success, and that is what we need rather than big names.
Following on from that, expectation must be managed properly. Reading the J&S forum and the statement released on Sunday, I’m edgy that people will expect us to rip up the Championship at a canter. Promotion I think is a more than realistic target providing there isn’t a total decimation of the squad and/or there are good enough funds available to rebuild. But as we know from previous experience, we haven’t found it as a simple as that. It’s a cliché but if we have a lot of new players they will take time to gel. And I think we will face the same issue that we faced the previous two Championship promotion campaigns, that we were the big guns in that league. We had the biggest names, the biggest wage bill, arguably one of the biggest clubs in there generally; all in all teams in the Championship will see us as the team to beat. It will be like us if we play one of the top four, and we have tended to struggle if teams pack ten behind the ball against us, and a fair few teams will next season.
Our entry into the Europa League will exacerbate this further. The Europa League, depending on how far we get in it, could also knacker us out. Say we get into the group stage, if you include the minimum one fixture we will have to play in the two domestic cups, we will play at least fifty-six games next season, with four being on Thursday nights abroad in Europe. No other club will have to contend with that. I wouldn’t want us to go into the Europa League with a half-arsed attitude because it’s not like we get into Europe every season, but if we do progress league form might dip; I just hope we can strike the balancing act as far as possible and that people will see that we probably won’t be able to burn both ends of the candle.
Furthermore, there will be some big beasts fighting against us next season. Leicester have Sven and apparently a shed load of cash. Cardiff have some great players. West Ham will be backed by Sullivan and Gold, and they need to get back for their Olympic stadium to have a chance of succeeding. I think Leeds will be gunning for it after a good season, Southampton and Ipswich are both backed by big bucks and are big names. Forest will be trying to make it third time lucky. And there are always surprise packages-this season’s have been Norwich and Reading, the former ended up promoted, the latter could be after the play-off final on Monday. Who’s to say Brighton won’t carry their momentum from blitzing through League One into next season. Portsmouth have some decent players, as do Hull. It’s not like there will be a lack of competition.
So where could we end up? If enough of this squad is kept on and proper reinforcements are financed, then a non-promotion, whatever way you look at it, would be a failure. However, if the squad is culled, McLeish is hamstrung and inevitably sacked if we make a rubbish start to the season. If our finances fall in around our ears, then we could do well to finish mid-table. That’s not me being extreme, clubs as big or even bigger than us have sank like the Titanic in this league. If the money isn’t there, or we go into next season with internal fighting or with no real organisation and vision, there is no divine right as to why we would succeed. And if we stay down for one season, we could be down for a long, long time.
As noses, were used to a bit of success, were used to a lot of failure. All I can say is keep the faith, KeepRightOn.
Nat.
You lost me at ‘Class Manager’. He’s not, and he’s proved it twice.
Good read though mate.
i cant believe anyone wants Mcleish to stay.
when we got promoted last time, we struggled and when we won it was by one goal. then 2 seasons averaging one goal a game.
To his credit, he can spot good defenders and keepers but the attacking players have been awful.
We dont even have a style of play and nobody knows what their teammates are doing.
Holloway is the man!!
Great Blog, although one or two contentions from me.
Class Manager? I think we should get this into perspective.
He took us to our highest place in the top flight in a generation.
He won the first real trophy in our history.
I for one, dont care about what the football is like, he has delivered like no other manager in our history.
I think he is better than class, and in my opinion, should be up there as a Blues legend.
I understand the guys are concerned about football being “boring”, “negative” etc etc, but here is the thing… when did Blues play like Barcelona/Arsenal? (when did anyone come to that). I think we are not being realistic in our expectations.
As for being the “ones to beat” in the Championship, we were certainly that last time (how many games were there where teams “parked the bus” against us?… I dont think this will be the case this time, and that honour will go to the Happy Hammers (I hope!). We also suffered from those derbies… which I dont think will be as much of an issue this time.
I think there is a lot to be said for sneaking under the radar, as it were.
I also think the Europa might be a blessing, and allow us to play sundays (live on BBC!), have more match fitness etc etc.
as well as allow us to attract the better players at our level (how many will be able to offer European football?)
good blog though!
Bluewurst your comments re the blog are completely dillusional . I’m a blues fan but fair play we won the cup and the best team won.. but we had a lucky run and have arsenal won anything?
Watching them in the league has been awful tactics have been zero.
We potentially have 9 players leaving are in debt and our attendances will be pathetic for our alleged big club.. europe on top what team do we play? When every game in the championship is big
Sorry blues fans talk of bouncin back is just wishfull thinkin…. owners manager didn’t see this coming until the 70th minute at spurs.. the fallout from this poor campain will be felt for a very long time
Well good to know that there is life after the Prem after all – still lots to talk about and the dust is settling so we can get a more balanced perspective. I’ve got to say that the last two seasons have been the best for me in over thirty years supporting the Blues. I believe we will look back on McLeish as a God for getting us to 9th in the Prem and winning our first major trophy in the modern era. Don’t forget we were not far off another trip to wembley for the FA Cup semi finals as well. I have no doubt we would have stayed up were it not for the Carling Cup exertions and if Mcleish can do all of this then I am sure he is the best person to lead us back into the Prem at the first attempt ( as he did before ). So, for me, no problem with the manager. Now regarding the players then I imagine we will cash in on some big offers for Foster, Dann, Johnson and Jerome. For the most part that’s a bit sad (sorry Jerome!) but it will give us a nice transfer kitty. I can see a ‘hard core’ remaining i.e. Gardner, Ridgewell, Ferguson ,Carr, Beausejour, Davies, Fahey, Murphy, McFadden, Doyle and, just maybe, Zigic. Of the youngsters, I imagine that Redmund, Mutch, Butland and Asante will get a chance to be genuine first team squad regulars. So, at the moment, the team on day one of the championship could be Doyle, Murphy, Ridgwell, Davies, Carr, Beausejour, Ferguson, Gardner, Fahey, McFadden, Zigic and the bench – Mutch, Redmund, Asante, Striker 1, Defender 1, Defender 2, Butland. On this basis, a couple of pacey strikers, a young right back ( Nathaniel Clyne ) and cover at centre half are the immediate priorities. Doesn’t look too bad to me but then I have learnt to be an eternal optimist over the past thirty years 😉
Well ( and realistically ! ) said Bunty. Nat’s blog is an engaging well written piece , and hats off to his general awareness regarding The Championship and it’s teams .
But as Bunty has inferred , any Blues fans that are even considering ‘ bouncing back ‘ are so far off the mark , they really haven’t been concentrating on the gradual, grinding, dismantling of any semblance of innovation that we may have had within our team over the past 3 years.
We are a MILLION miles away from being anything other than a ( very ) ordinary 2nd tier club.
I haven’t got a crystal ball , so I can’t forecast all of the horrors yet to grace St Andrews , but make no mistake , this isn’t just a relegation ! it might seem as though it’s a last minute and sudden death , but we have been on a one way ticket to Premiership oblivion for months and months .
You could drag ANY football fan that ‘ knows his stuff ‘ in off the streets now , and he would ‘ manage’ the team better than McLeish.
We’re a laughing stock , and we better get used to it .
not gonna lie i think u might actually stay down for gd this time 🙂
God what a pessimistic miserable blog.
Bluewurst asked the question, when did Blues ever play like Barcelona, the answer is 23rd of October 1957 Birmingham City 4–3 Barcelona and I was there. Just for the record we also won the League cup before in 1963 and I was there too.
Alex Mcleish has just given us another day to remember by beating Arsenal 2-1 in 2011 so he should be congratulated for doing what so few have managed before.
Lets hope Platini gets his way and sorts out a methodology for developing a fairer distribution of football generated wealth. (Was that a flying pig?)
The fact that to some I’m too optimistic and some I’m too pessimistic makes me think I’ve got the balance right.
It all depends on this Summer-if we decimate the squad in my opinion we will struggle, if we manage to keep a good core in tact and spend properly, we should be one of the top teams.
I’d happy if the squad was decimated as that only loses us one out of every ten 😉
But totally agree we’ll be in the top four if we can retain a core of players – would love to see Foster, Dann, Ridge and Gardner stay.
Can people please stop talking about Ridgewell as if he’s a ‘ proper ‘ footballer ?…..
You sound like a vile troll TR7. Ridge has done a very solid job at LB this season, totally different player to the accident-prone “agent” of previous years – even scoring a few goals too. I’d have him over Murphy every day of the week.
I’d have to agree with Tired & Weary I’d rather not have a left back than play murphy he’s worse than useless . However ridge will struggle for pace in this young mans league but could be the hinge pin in a 5,3,2 formation.
Good blog natt you make a lot of good points but Mcleish will never be class and should have gone , in any other ocupation the manager carrys the can regardless of any previous success.
Failure is failure however you try to dress it up.
One thing the article does not take into consideration. Why should these players want to come to Blues?
We no longer have the Premiership to draw them and as things stand are we any more attractive than many other teams in the Championship?
If it comes to crowd size as an indicator of a club’s appeal I can see 8 or more teams that will be “bigger” than us next season and if the stories of our finances are true we won’t be able to pay them bigger wages than many teams in the division. In addition what is more attractive, a team that nearly got promoted last year like Forest, or a team that has come down and probably sold many of its top players?
I have serious worries about the next few seasons, fingers crossed I am wrong but…..
Now perhaps some of our more ‘Head in the clouds ‘ members might start to get it Roy ?
My absence from this site for much of the last month has been due to the fact that i have been away from NZ (and the PC) for most of it. I was still overseas when relegation happened last week and must say I was surprised – when I went away in the first week of May we had a gap of several points over the bottom 3 plus a goal difference advantage, and I thought that would be enough to see us finish ahead of Wolves and Wigan, while West Ham were already gonners by then. My confidence at that stage assumed that Blues would maybe pick up at least one more point v Fulham, that Wolves would not get back to back away wins as they did, and that Wigan would not win a couple, including away. Even then, it still all came down to Wolves scoring in the 87th minute of the last game .
Having said all that, I did see the second half of the home loss to Fulham 2 weekends ago, from St Petersburg of all places, and have to admit that Blues did not look like a secure Premier League side based on what I saw on the TV that night. One can make excuses – they have had a tough time with injuries since the Carling Cup win – but I don’t want to do so – other teams have that problem too and still survive.
I see that McLeish has kept his job: I am not so sure that is a good move – the bottom line this season is that we should have stayed up, and could have if we had scored just a couple more goals over the whole season – but you don’t score many goals constantly playing 4-5-1 , as we have too often done this year. The result of this season is sadly typical of the Blues recent efforts – always finding new ways to get relegated, and I am getting used to it after 50+ years of supporting them.
I suppose my lasting memory of this season will be one that will last longer than the memory of yet another relegation – we won the Carling Cup!! And looked bloody good doing so.
As to next season, i am not holding my breath – i fear for what the squad will look like in 8 weeks time, and doubt we can bounce back right away this time. I really hope i am wrong though – KRO, as always.
as a postscript to my previous post, i have just read on the BCFC site that Larsson, Super Kev, Maik Taylor and Bowyer have now all left. None of that is surprising. But those guys gave great service to Blues (esp Taylor, over a v long period, including as a willing No 2 keeper to Hart & Foster in recent years) – and given a bit more game time, the same might also have applied to Jiranek. Thanks for your efforts guys, esp for the good times.