So Who Will Go Down This Season?

Here is Bazza’s take on the relegation fight!

Last year I stuck my neck out with about eight games to go and predicted which teams would leave the Premier League which proved to be accurate. I did this in two ways; by way of my personal predictions, some of which were accurate and some not, and simple mathematics. The points tally in the end was just about right within a mark or two but my three predicted teams fell by the wayside. To be fair, the predictions weren’t altogether difficult as teams had got themselves cut adrift unlike this year where sides have managed to stay in contention in the closest relegation scrap in years.

With Blues victory against Sunderland it has allowed us to breathe a little easier than a couple of weeks ago although it would be complacent to suggest that we are not still in the mix. There are four teams on 38 points namely Sunderland, Birmingham City, Stoke City and Fulham. All could in theory be candidates for the drop but the smart money would be on these teams achieving at least three more points in their remaining five or six games taking them to 41 which will probably be enough given that many of the teams below Sunderland have to play each other. I have therefore considered only the present bottom five as my candidates for relegation and I will analyse each with regard to their respective run-ins.

Wolverhampton Wanderers: 32 points.

Our Midland neighbours have six games left having missed their game at the weekend because of Stoke City’s semi-final appearance in the FA Cup unlike the other teams who all have five left to play. Their fixtures are as follows:

Fulham (H) – Draw    1
Stoke City (A) – Loss   0
Birmingham City (A) – Loss  0
West Bromwich Albion (H) – Win 3
Sunderland (A) – Draw   1
Blackburn Rovers (H) – Draw  1
TOTAL     38

I think Wolves will struggle to beat a well organised Fulham side but should scrap for a draw. I cannot see them getting anything out of Stoke unless it is a case of after the Lord Mayor’s Show and as for us I would hope we have their measure although a draw here is not beyond the bounds of possibility. The local derby against the Baggies means anything can happen but I would fancy the home team in these circumstances as Wolves would see this as a must win game. I thought that the Black and Gold might grab a draw at the Stadium of Light because they may out of desperation require some sort of positive result and Blackburn will be equally desperate, I suspect, on the last day of the season to stay up so another draw there I feel.

West Ham United: 32 points.

The Hammers have only five games left and a horrible run-in as follows:

Chelsea (A) – Loss   0
Manchester City (A) – Loss  0
Blackburn Rovers (H) – Draw  1
Wigan Athletic (A) – Draw  1
Sunderland (H) – Draw   1
TOTAL     35

There are a number of games here that could turn out completely different to my predictions especially the last three. However, for the very reason that Blackburn and Wigan are scrapping for their lives is the reason I’ve gone for a draw in each. It wouldn’t surprise me if West Ham won both though and this would put a completely different complexion on things. The Hammers have been one of my tips to drop out of the Premier League all season and so I’m going to stick with this rather gloomy outlook for them especially as they have their talisman, Scott Parker injured at such a crucial time.

Blackpool: 33 points.

Blackpool’s policy of attack and damn the consequences has caught up with them of late and their 3-0 defeat to Wigan at the weekend was a terrible reverse. They have five games left, three of which are at home which could hold the key to their survival. They have a defence like a colander but offer plenty of threat up front. No one expects them to change their attitude towards matches.

Newcastle United (H) – Win  3
Stoke City (H) – Draw   1
Tottenham Hotspur (A) – Loss  0
Bolton Wanderers (H) – Win  3
Manchester United (A) – Loss  0
TOTAL     40

Newcastle do not travel well and are safe. Blackpool will want to bounce back from their poor results of late and as they simply must win if they are to have any hope, I believe they will although I thought they would beat Wigan! They are unlikely to survive trips to Spurs and the Champions-elect so they will have to get their points at home. They have the best chance of all the bottom five in my view. Bolton may after a long season ending in the disappointment of the Wembley debacle be thinking of sun-drenched beaches and Blackpool could just catch them at the right time.

Wigan Athletic: 34 points.

The Latics have surprised a few people with their battling qualities and they have picked up useful points recently against us, Spurs and Blackpool which has given them a chance. They have been poor most of the season but in Roberto Martinez they are well organised and have rallied of late. Their remaining programme is not easy however and they will struggle to survive in my opinion.

Sunderland (A) – Loss   0
Everton (H) – Draw    1
Aston Villa (A) – Loss   0
West Ham United (H) – Draw  1
Stoke City (A) – Draw   1
TOTAL     37

Sadly for Wigan they have three difficult away games left and a trip to Stoke on the final day may present their best chance of success with the home side having just played the FA Cup Final. Wigan may have to go all out for a result but I fear they will fall just short. Sunderland have gained one point from the last 27 but their horrible run has to end somewhere and I suspect their determination will mean a defeat for Wigan in the north-east. The crucial game for Wigan will be the game against West Ham. Defeat for either will probably spell certain relegation for the vanquished at this stage and so I predict a draw, the result that neither will want, to be the outcome.

Blackburn Rovers: 35 points. Blackburn’s run-in is simply hell’s worst nightmare. Whilst they have to play two of their close rivals both matches are away and Blackburn have been poor travellers this season. Their home games are even worse with both Manchester clubs to visit Ewood Park along with their near neighbours, Bolton. My predictions are as follows:

Manchester City (H) – Loss  0
Bolton Wanderers (H) – Draw  1
West Ham United (A) – Draw  1
Manchester United (H) – Loss  0
Wolverhampton Wanderers (A) – Draw 1
TOTAL     38

You will see from these forecasts that I predict West Ham and Wigan to go down with Wolves probably just missing out to Blackburn on goal difference. Presently Wolves have a GD of -20 and Blackburn -14. This is a big gap at this stage especially since most of the games from here on in are likely to be tight cagey affairs.  However, the Manchester giants are more than capable of denting Blackburn’s GD seriously so Wolves could just survive if the worst happens to Rovers.

For those of you reading this whose teams I have doomed, please don’t take offence. I mean this highly speculative article as a bit of fun and fully accept that there will be a lot of differing opinions out there. I will probably have it completely wrong and two of my picks survive and others take their place. It promises to be an interesting finish and I am looking forward to watching the drama unfold.

One final thing; in the final analysis I don’t have any bias against any team one way or the other and I don’t really care who goes down in the end as long as Blues don’t!

KRO SOTV

Bazza