I have been scratching my head since our amazing win away in Bruges, and in advance of this Thursday’s fixture, to try to predict how likely it is we’ll qualify for the Knockout Stage of the competition. See if you can follow my various possibilities. If someone can show me how to set it up “properly” so every eventuality is included, feel free….
GROUP H
Current Table Pl W D L F A Pts
Birmingham City FC 3 2 0 1 5 5 6
Club Brugge KV 3 2 0 1 5 3 6
SC Braga 3 1 1 1 5 4 4
NK Maribor 3 0 1 2 2 5 1
Remaining Fixtures
Braga v Maribor
Birmingham v Brugge
Maribor v Brugge
Braga v Birmingham
Brugge v Braga
Birmingham v Maribor
Here are some of my ponderings. I think there are a potential three to the power of six (729) outcomes, so apologies if it’s not complete, I have tried the most ‘obvious’ outcomes…
All group wins are home wins would mean
Birmingham 6 points = 12
Brugge 3 points = 9
Braga 6 points = 10
Maribor 3 points = 4
Birmingham and Braga qualify
All group wins are away wins would mean
Birmingham 3 points = 9
Brugge 6 points = 12
Braga 3 points = 7
Maribor 6 points = 7
Birmingham and Brugge qualify
All draws would mean
Birmingham 3 points= 9
Brugge 3 points = 9
Braga 3 points = 7
Maribor 3 points = 4
Birmingham and Brugge qualify
Clubs replicate results so far
Birmingham 6 points = 12
Brugge 6 points = 12
Braga 4 points = 8
Maribor 1 point = 2
Birmingham and Brugge qualify
Maribor and Braga win their matches (but draw against each other)
Birmingham 1 point = 7 points
Brugge 1 point = 7 points
Braga 7 points = 11 points
Maribor 7 points = 8 points
Maribor and Braga qualify
Maribor win all their matches, Braga win the other two
Birmingham 1 point = 7 points
Brugge 1 point = 7 points
Braga 6 points = 10 points
Maribor 9 points = 10 points
Maribor and Braga qualify
Maribor win one (Braga), draw two. Others draw.
Birmingham 3 points = 9
Brugge 3 points = 9
Braga 2 points = 6
Maribor 5 points = 6
Birmingham and Brugge qualify
Maribor win one (Birmingham) draw two. Others draw
Birmingham 2 points = 8
Brugge 3 points = 9
Braga 3 points = 7
Maribor 5 points = 6
Birmingham and Brugge qualify
Maribor win one (Brugge), draw two. Others draw
Birmingham 3 points = 9
Brugge 2 points = 8
Braga 3 points = 7
Maribor 5 points = 6
Birmingham and Brugge qualify
If Birmingham win all games, and Maribor win the other two
Birmingham 9 points = 15
Brugge 1 point = 7
Braga 1 point = 5
Maribor 6 points = 7
Birmingham and Brugge* qualify
*Brugge away win against Maribor*
If Birmingham win two games, (including Brugge) lose one.
Birmingham 6 points = 12
Brugge 6 points = 12
Braga 9 points max = 13
Maribor 9 points max = 10
Braga and Birmingham* qualify
*Birmingham beat Brugge in head-to-head*
If Birmingham win only one more game (Braga), and draw one (Brugge) can we still qualify?
Birmingham 4 points = 10
Brugge 7 points max = 13
Braga 6 points max = 10
Maribor 9 points max = 10
Brugge and Birmingham* qualify
*assuming Birmingham beat Maribor on goal difference and Braga on head-to-head*
Some conclusions:
Blues qualify in 10 of the outlined outcomes
Brugge qualify in 8 of the outlined outcomes
Braga qualify in 4 of the outlined outcomes
Maribor qualify in 2 of the outlined outcomes
This would suggest Blues are favourites to go through to the Knockout Stage, mainly because,
a) We’re top.
b) They’re MY predictions so there.
c) We have ‘home matches to go’ advantage – Brugge don’t.
d) We progress if nobody wins their home matches (including us!)
e) We progress if nobody wins their away matches (including us!)
f) We progress if nobody wins (i.e. all six matches end in draws!)
Even if Maribor win their first two games, Blues need just a point against them, to finish above them. Not likely to finish bottom, then.
If Blues beat Braga, remaining unbeaten away, Braga must win their two other games whilst Blues lose both home fixtures, to finish above Birmingham. Not bad considering they beat us at home!
If Brugge beat Blues, Birmingham would still progress, as long as all other games go to the away team.
Maribor must be unbeaten in all of their remaining games to qualify, winning at least 2.
If Blues beat Brugge – and with them being a manager short, it shouldn’t be an impossible task! – one more win guarantees them qualification.
If this isn’t enough to bring warmth to every Bluenose, I don’t know what is!!
Keep Right On!
Keep it simple, Blues have to win two of the remaining three fixtures to be sure of qualifying… Even footballers can understand that level of maths, surely?
Furgy reckons if you get 10 pts you qualify so thats good enough for me Kro4ever
There is a danger 10 points might not be enough. If Blues and Brugge draw their match and Braga win theirs (quite possible) then Blues, Braga and Brugge will all have 7 points. If the results are then:
Blues & Brugge both beat Maribor
Braga beat Blues
Braga and Brugge draw or Brugge wins
I think(!) that means we go out.
In a season in which Man Utd were beaten 1-6 at Old Trafford by Man City,Arsenal beaten 8-2 by Man Utd & Chelsea 3 Arsenal 5 im not gonna make any predictions other than we will be “there or thereabouts !”
I think we’ll end up in the top four.
Great prediction Gerald. Though I do wonder why you think we won’t also be in the bottom four?
Skareggae, I’d be rather more concerned at our lack of home form in this round, and pleased with our away form. That’s the unpredictable part for me.
The Hedge – Smack on.
Spotlight Kid – You’re right. Can’t wait to see your ‘If we win every Championship match we’ll be promoted’ blog 😉
Russ@6 – In fact it’s just about the same formula as this. To ensure automatic promotion you need to win two out of every three games or permutations thereof – ie 2 points per game return overall. Looking at past Championships 1.9 or even 1.8 should do it for runners up spot. Hughton at NUFC kept them on a charge that ended up well over 2pts per game at the end, but dropped to 1.7 pts per game at one stage during a sticky patch. I never look at the team’s position in the league, only the games/points ratio ’cause that’s where the truth lies. There, your wait is now over!
Spotlight Kid@7 – Thanks. Loved it. 🙂
You haven’t mentioned the nightmare senario, blues draw with bruges braga beat maribor we drop to third as goal difference will need to decide placings. We then lose in Braga bruges beat maribor. last match bruges and braga play the most boring 0-0 draw since west germany v austria in 82 world cup. We beat maribor to no avail.
Hope you got all that!!!!
Ah well at least we haven’t got Mcleish!!!!!! 🙂
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